Rice Sufficiency Projections in Malang Regency Towards Golden Indonesia 2045

Authors

Keywords:

rice availability, 2045 projection, ARIMA

Abstract

For most Indonesians, rice is a staple of their diet. Food supply, particularly from domestic rice production, is correlated with food availability. Stable rice production is one of the determining factors in achieving food self-sufficiency towards the golden Indonesia 2045 and making Indonesia the world's food barn. This investigation aims to assess the adequacy of rice availability in Malang Regency in support of Golden Indonesia 2045. The data sources used were rice production and rice consumption data for 2010–2023, obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of Malang Regency and the Food Security Service of Malang Regency. The analysis methodology used is an ARIMA-Box-Jenkins analysis to project rice production and consumption. The analysis shows that projections of rice production and consumption in Malang Regency have increased each year. The highest rice production projection is in 2045, at 390,655 tons. The average growth of rice production is 1.06%. The highest rice consumption projection is in 2045, at 277,577 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%. Rice production is higher than rice consumption. Thus, overall, Malang Regency is estimated to produce a rice surplus from 2024 to 2045, averaging 92,812 tons.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Amaliya, A. R., Yenie Eva Damayanti, & Miftahuljannah, F. (2022). Strategi Pengembangan Program Kawasan Rumah Pangan Lestari (KRPL) Di Desa Rejosari Kecamatan Bantur. Tepis Wiring: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat, 1(1), 27–33. https://doi.org/10.33379/tepiswiring.v1i1.1648

Ayaka, A., Hanako, F., & Haruka, H. (2024). Urban Agricultural Revolution in Japan with Verticulture Technology. Techno Agriculture Studium of Research 1(2), 71–85. https://doi.org/10.55849/agriculturae.v1i1.172

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Angka Konversi GKP ke GKG dan GKG ke Beras, 2018. https://sumsel.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/1/MjIxIzE=/angka-konversi-gkp-ke-gkg-dan-gkg-ke-beras--2018.html

Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Malang. (2017). Kabupaten Malang dalam Angka 2017. BPS Kabupaten Malang.

Campi, M., Dueñas, M., & Fagiolo, G. (2021). Specialization in food production affects global food security and food systems' sustainability. World Development, 141, 105411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105411

Fathonah, F. I., & Mashilal. (2021). Rice Production Analysis in Reflecting Rice Self-sufficiency in Indonesia. E3S Web of Conferences, 316, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202131602041

Hidayatulloh, W., & Koestiono, D. (2021). Dampak Program Upaya Khusus Padi, Jagung, dan Kedelai (UPSUS PAJALE) terhadap Tingkat Ketahanan Pangan di Kabupaten Malang. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 5(4), 1059–1068. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2021.005.04.9

Hikmah, A. N., Asrul, L., & Rukmana, D. (2020). Projection of rice production and consumption in Maros regency, South Sulawesi. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 492(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/492/1/012120

Januarti, I., Junaidi, Y., & Purbiyanti, E. (2022). Forecasting Production and Consumption of Rice and Influence of Determinants To Increase Food Security in the South Sumatra Region, Indonesia. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 121(1), 144–156. https://doi.org/10.18551/rjoas.2022-01.17

Jellason, N. P., Robinson, E. J. Z., Ogbaga, C. C., García-Mateos, G., Parras-Burgos, D., & Molina Martínez, J. M. (2021). Applied Sciences Perspective Agriculture 4.0: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Ready? Applied Sciences, 11, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11125750

Kementerian RI. (2016). Kebijakan Penyelemat Swasembada Pangan. IAARD Press (Edisi II).

Majidah, Z., Sukidin, S., & Hartanto, W. (2021). Peran Sektor Pertanian Dalam Pembangunan Ekonomi Kabupaten Jember (Ditinjau dari Aspek PDRB, Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja, dan Indeks Harga Konsumen). Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pendidikan, Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Ilmu Sosial, 15(1), 97–102. https://doi.org/10.19184/jpe.v15i1.18482

Marzani, Y., & Juliannisa, I. A. (2024). Assessment Ketersediaan Beras Pada 34 Provinsi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 8(2), 700–711. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2024.008.02.25

Maula, L. R., & Rianti, T. S. M. (2021). Fluktuasi dan Peramalan Harga Cabai Rawit di Kabupaten Malang. Media Agribisnis, 5(1), 9–13. https://doi.org/10.35326/agribisnis.v5i1.1179

Nur, S. Z., Sjah, T., & Fernandez, F. E. (2023). Di Nusa Tenggara Barat Development and Projection of Rice Production and Consumption in West Nusa Tenggara. 21(3), 147–163. https://doi.org/10.29303/agrimansion.v21i3.426

Olufemi-phillips, A. Q., Igwe, A. N., Ofodile, O. C., Louis, N., & Toromade, A. S. (2024). Analyzing economic inflation's impact on food security and accessibility through econometric modeling.

Prasetyo, T. (2019). Daya Dukung Pertanian Regional Jawa Tengah Dan Gagasan in Lumbung Pangan Dunia 2045. Menuju Lumbung Pangan Dunia. Warta Inovasi, 12(2), 7–12. https://repository.pertanian.go.id/server/api/core/bitstreams/cc64d598-4cf3-4d94-a1ac-61e2c16b174a/content

Salasa, A. R. (2021). Paradigma dan Dimensi Strategi Ketahanan Pangan Indonesia. Jejaring Administrasi Publik, 13(1), 35–48. https://doi.org/10.20473/jap.v13i1.29357

Sari, R. W. S. W. S., & Yuliani, E. (2022). Identifikasi Dampak Alih Fungsi Lahan Pertanian Ke Non Pertanian Untuk Perumahan. Jurnal Kajian Ruang, 1(2), 255. https://doi.org/10.30659/jkr.v1i2.20032

Saud, S., Wang, D., Fahad, S., Alharby, H. F., Bamagoos, A. A., Mjrashi, A., Alabdallah, N. M., AlZahrani, S. S., AbdElgawad, H., Adnan, M., Sayyed, R. Z., Ali, S., & Hassan, S. (2022). Comprehensive Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptive Strategies in China. Frontiers in Microbiology, 13(June), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2022.926059

Siwanto, T. S., & Melati, M. (2020). Peran Pupuk Organik dalam Peningkatan Efisiensi Pupuk Anorganik pada Padi Sawah (Oryza sativa L.). Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia (Indonesian Journal of Agronomy), 43(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.24831/jai.v43i1.9582

Sugiyono. (2019). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Alfabeta.

Sulistyaningsih, S., & Fatah, R. S. (2022). Analisis Proyeksi Produksi Padi Dan Kebutuhan Konsumsi Beras Di Kabupaten Bondowoso. Agribios, 20(1), 114. https://doi.org/10.36841/agribios.v20i1.1638

Ummah, R., Hindarti, S., & Siswadi, B. (2023). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Produksi Usahatani Padi (Studi Kasus pada Kelompok Tani Godong di Desa Balongsari Kabupaten Jombang). JU-Ke (Jurnal Ketahanan Pangan), 7(2), 274–283.https://jim.unisma.ac.id/index.php/JU-ke/article/view/22495

WHO (World Health Organization). (2015). Health in 2015: from MDGs, Millennium Development Goals to SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals.

Published

2025-11-24

How to Cite

Rochmawati, H. I., Arifin, Z., & Rianti, T. S. M. (2025). Rice Sufficiency Projections in Malang Regency Towards Golden Indonesia 2045. Buletin Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Haluoleo, 27(2), 130–139. https://doi.org/10.37149/bpsosek.v27i2.1944

Issue

Vol. 27 No. 2 (2025)

Section

Articles
Digital Object Identifier
https://doi.org/10.37149/bpsosek.v27i2.1944
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2025 Hanna Innayah Rochmawati, Zainul Arifin, Titis Surya Maha Rianti

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY-SA) 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work’s authorship initial publication in this journal.